Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 83%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète21 déc. 23, 15:29 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.
- I don't have a particular compute cap in mind, as long as the agreement looks something like "no models larger than GPT-n" where n is the largest GPT in existence by the time the pause takes effect.
- Not every nation needs to be involved, but at a bare minimum it must include the US, China, and the UK.
- The only condition on the agreement I'll require for a YES resolution is some sort of bare minimum enforcement or inspection mechanism, so that mere pledges from nations not to train large models will not count.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.