Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffIATech7aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle6 to 24 months 36%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+2.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète17 août 26, 22:54 UTC31 déc. 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- pause doesn't have to be continuous but cumulative pause time
- Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- It will resolve to N/A if a global pause on frontier AI training does not occur before "strong AGI" is achieved.
- If a global pause on frontier training is enacted prior to the arrival of strong AGI, this market will resolve to the option representing the cumulative duration of the pause(s) before strong AGI is officially achieved.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 6 to 24 months à 36% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2033.
- Comment Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/