Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffIATech7a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle6 to 24 months 36%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
17 août 26, 22:54 UTC31 déc. 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- pause doesn't have to be continuous but cumulative pause time
- Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- It will resolve to N/A if a global pause on frontier AI training does not occur before "strong AGI" is achieved.
- If a global pause on frontier training is enacted prior to the arrival of strong AGI, this market will resolve to the option representing the cumulative duration of the pause(s) before strong AGI is officially achieved.
