Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.9%
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47
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète10 oct. 24, 01:58 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl)
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Manifold MarketsRègles
By “massive catastrophe”, I mean any disaster that has caused at least 1,000,000 deaths or US$100 billion in damage directly attributable to AI, for example a pandemic virus engineered with the help of AI, or a cyberattack taking down some electrical grid.
- Update 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The catastrophe must be a single discrete incident, not a series of related actions or impacts.
- A series of AI-driven attacks that collectively exceed the damage threshold would not qualify.
- Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The number of individual attacks that caused a grid failure or similar event is not relevant to determining whether it was a single event.
- The creator will defer to moderators' consensus in ambiguous cases.
