Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 75.5%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète17 sept. 23, 14:31 UTC2 janv. 50, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurWill there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
KalshiRègles
The destination does not necessarily need to be the orbit of another star, but the mission should enter interstellar space.
- For the purposes of this market, "interstellar space" begins simply at 150 AU from the Sun.
Marchés ouverts
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 76% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2250.
- Comment Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The destination does not necessarily need to be the orbit of another star, but the mission should enter interstellar space.