Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 98.3%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète16 déc. 25, 06:04 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Stoke Space propulsively land and refly a second stage?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship fly in space with a human on board?
Manifold MarketsBy when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill a human walk on Mars before the end of 2045?
Manifold MarketsNASA confirms aliens before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Stoke Space successfully launches a rocket to space (reaching at least 100 km altitude) by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from Stoke Space, FAA records, or credible space industry sources.
- The market resolves NO if no spaceflight is achieved by the deadline.
- Stoke Space Technologies is an American space launch company based in Kent, Washington, founded by former Blue Origin and SpaceX employees.
- Nova is a fully reusable medium-lift launch vehicle with an expected payload capacity of 3 tons to low Earth orbit, with the first stage performing a return-to-launch-site landing.
