Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 00:23 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
2030/01/01 88.9%En tête parmi 15 options
2030/01/01 88.9%Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 24, 22:53 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Starship fly in space with a human on board?
Manifold MarketsWhen will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse
Manifold MarketsWill Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRègles
Each date resolves YES if a Starship that had flown to space (>100km altitude) returns to Earth in one piece, and then flies to space again, before that date, using local time at the launch site.
- Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star
- Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting