Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 12:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2030 61.1%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-9.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
30 mars 24, 14:21 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship fly intercontinental by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
The market will resolve positively as soon a live human either successfully launches on a SpaceX Starship to space, or enters a Starship while in space (anywhere more than 100 km from Earth surface).
- It will still count if the Starship fails in some way, as long as it happens after it has reached space.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
- Similar question about launch and landing:
- @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-or
- My other questions about Starship milestones: