Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 84.2%En tête parmi 4 options
Non 84.2%Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète5 mars 26, 21:35 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?
Manifold MarketsWill my Ukrainian friend die in the war in Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is formally announced and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- This includes any agreement that halts active hostilities, whether temporary or permanent, and regardless of whether it involves territorial concessions or security guarantees.
- The market resolves NO if active fighting continues through the end of 2026 without a formal ceasefire or peace agreement taking effect.
- For verification, resolution will be based on official announcements from the Ukrainian government, Russian government, or major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).
- Russia launched a nearly 4-year-old invasion of Ukraine, with Russia currently occupying 20 percent of Ukraine's territory.