Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.7%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 41 minutes
25 juil. 26, 17:00 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a national law be in force in the US imposing safety requirements on the training/deployment of AI models?
Manifold MarketsUS government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump deport, imprison, denaturalize, or attack Jack Smith using the powers of the US government?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Not simply export controls, as happened with Fable.
- That order allowed the model to be run, just restricted access (even though in practice partial / limited access wasn't a viable option).
- This might be law, court order, or executive order.
- It might be permanent or temporary ("halt training until your sandbox passes an audit").
