Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.3%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète25 juil. 26, 17:00 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump deport, imprison, denaturalize, or attack Jack Smith using the powers of the US government?
Manifold MarketsUS government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Not simply export controls, as happened with Fable.
- That order allowed the model to be run, just restricted access (even though in practice partial / limited access wasn't a viable option).
- This might be law, court order, or executive order.
- It might be permanent or temporary ("halt training until your sandbox passes an audit").
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US Government halt training or deployment of an AI model by EOY 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US Government halt training or deployment of an AI model by EOY 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US Government halt training or deployment of an AI model by EOY 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will the US Government halt training or deployment of an AI model by EOY 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Not simply export controls, as happened with Fable.