Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffIASociety & Culture4moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 63.2%
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5
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète6 nov. 25, 16:37 UTC1 févr. 27, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 75,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 61,5 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+2.5pt85.4%
- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 61,1 k €
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 63% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2027.
- Comment Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.