Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
One-OffReligionSociété et culturePolitique américaine2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.7%
Prévisionnistes
55
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 43 minutes
13 avr. 24, 20:53 UTC1 janv. 27, 10:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
In 2020, 64% of Americans identified as Christian, according to Pew Research Center.
- This marked a continuation of a long-term decline in Christian affiliation in the U.S. This market asks traders to predict whether this downward trend will persist, specifically if the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian will fall below 60% by the end of 2026.
- Resolution Details: The resolution will be based on the latest available data from reputable sources such as Pew Research Center or other credible surveys that are published by the end of 2026.
- The market resolves as "Yes" if the percentage is reported to be below 60%, and "No" if it is 60% or above.
- If no new survey data are available by the deadline, the market will resolve as invalid.
- This market design gives a clear and direct question that can be objectively verified with upcoming survey data, making it straightforward for traders to research and forecast based on trends and changing demographics in U.S. religious affiliation.
