Will the percentage of philosophers identifying as religious in the next PhilPapers Survey decrease?
One-OffReligionSociété et culture1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 13:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 81.6%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète13 avr. 24, 03:53 UTC16 mars 28, 10:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me?
Manifold MarketsWithin the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Manifold MarketsWill any question in the next Philpapers survey get at least 90% agreement?
Manifold MarketsWill the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
In the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, philosophers were asked about their stance on theism versus atheism.
- The results showed that 14.6% of respondents accepted or leaned toward theism.
- This question aims to predict whether this percentage will decrease by the time of the 2028 survey.
- Participants should consider trends in the philosophical community, societal shifts in religious beliefs, and any other factors that might influence the religiosity of professional philosophers.
- The outcome will be determined based on the next PhilPapers Survey results for the same question, comparing the percentage of philosophers who accept or lean toward theism in 2028 to the 14.6% reported in 2020.
- Background: The PhilPapers Survey is a periodic survey that gauges philosophical attitudes and positions among professional philosophers and faculty members worldwide.
