Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 61.9%
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète25 août 24, 09:02 UTC1 janv. 27, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue?
Manifold MarketsIs Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?
Manifold MarketsWill there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight.
- Resolves Yes if Second Crewed Flight of Starliner takes Crew to ISS and brings them back on Earth safely, irrespective of delays.
- If problems arise such as Helium Leak or Thruster Malfunction, will still Resolve Yes if crew is brought home safe on Starliner.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve No if there is no second crewed Starliner flight by program shutdown (not just by market close date).
- Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator plans to extend the close date.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 62% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight.