Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2029- 60%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète24 févr. 24, 14:21 UTC31 déc. 28, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?
Manifold MarketsBy when will there be an unresupplied crewed spacecraft flight longer than 150 days?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRègles
The Lanyue is the Chinese crewed lunar lander.
- Resolves YES if a taikonaut enters (or is already inside) a Lanyue that is above the Karman Line.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2029- à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The Lanyue is the Chinese crewed lunar lander.