Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète20 juin 24, 20:11 UTC30 juin 27, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketWill the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship flight 14 happen?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship flight 15 happen?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill SpaceX test its HLS before 2027?
KalshiRègles
There are not currently plans for such a test.
- However, the Boe-CFT Crewed Flight Test has experienced problems, and there is speculation about another test flight before the first operational flight Starliner-1.
- Will such a flight happen?
- [tweet]Update 2025-11-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is an uncrewed "operational" flight named Starliner-1, this market will resolve No, even if it functions as another test flight in practice.
- The key criterion is whether the flight occurs before the Starliner-1 flight (by name), not whether it's operationally a test.
- If the resolution becomes unclear, the creator will seek an uninvolved second opinion.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2027.
- Comment Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : There are not currently plans for such a test.