Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 56%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète14 juil. 23, 23:38 UTC1 janv. 00, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following countries will the next astronaut to set foot on the moon represent?
Manifold MarketsWhen will humans set foot on the moon again?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an orgy on the moon by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill UNICEF's 2026 Afghanistan appeal finish at least 50% funded?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them.
- If for some reason it is not clear whether a woman was first, resolves to the fraction of women among the crew of the mission.
- Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
- Only count individuals who actually set foot on the lunar surface.
- Crew members who remain inside a landed vehicle and do not exit are not counted.
