Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 53.8%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète14 juil. 23, 23:38 UTC1 janv. 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following countries will the next astronaut to set foot on the moon represent?
Manifold MarketsWhen will humans set foot on the moon again?
Manifold MarketsNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRègles
If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them.
- If for some reason it is not clear whether a woman was first, resolves to the fraction of women among the crew of the mission.
- Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
- Only count individuals who actually set foot on the lunar surface.
- Crew members who remain inside a landed vehicle and do not exit are not counted.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume total
- 153,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 39,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 409,9 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2100.
- Comment Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them.