Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 76.7% au 6 octobre 2026.

Quand Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2050.

Comment Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Consensus of reliable sources will be used to check if an outbreak qualifies as a pandemic.

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

One-OffSanté et médecine Science Géopolitique

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 76.7%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 heures

Obsolète

24 janv. 24, 12:31 UTC2 janv. 50, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

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New pandemic in 2026?

Polymarket

Pandemic in 2026?

Kalshi

Règles

Consensus of reliable sources will be used to check if an outbreak qualifies as a pandemic.

Resolves YES or NO based on the resolution of a market that is similar in principle to Isaac's lab leak market.
Once a pandemic is declared, I will decide which market this question should be a mirror of.

Signaler un problème de données sur ce marché

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

Marchés ouverts

New pandemic in 2026?

Pandemic in 2026?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Plague pandemic in 2026?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?

Questions fréquentes

Utilisez ce marché dans du code ou un agent IA

Marchés ouverts

New pandemic in 2026?

Pandemic in 2026?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Plague pandemic in 2026?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?