Le COVID-19 vient-il d'un laboratoire ?
SportSanté et médecineOne-OffScienceÉchecsMétéoGéopolitique13a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72%
Prévisionnistes
2,259
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
1 sept. 22, 03:51 UTC1 janv. 40, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l
