Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.8%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
24 nov. 23, 17:25 UTC1 janv. 40, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWill the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Manifold MarketsWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?
Manifold MarketsDid HIV come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Lyme disease is no longer a subject of active political contention, and motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down.
- I will be conferring with the community extensivly before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existance of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
