Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2034 73%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
61
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète5 nov. 23, 17:48 UTC31 déc. 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the first human EXTEND artificial womb trial happen?
Manifold MarketsWill a cloned human baby be born before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Defined as a human being gestated in a synthetic environment that replicates the conditions of a biological mother's uterus and being.
- All years after the year this happens will resolve to YES, e.g. if it happens in 2029, then 2031, 2034, 2037, 2040... all resolve YES
- Disclaimers:
- This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site.
- Apologies for that.
- We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
Marchés ouverts
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 20,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 8 k €
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Volume total
- 84,1 k €
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 652,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,4 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 865,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3 k €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Volume total
- 915,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,2 k €
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2034 à 73% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2040.
- Comment Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Defined as a human being gestated in a synthetic environment that replicates the conditions of a biological mother's uterus and being.