KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Jan 1, 2028 84%+8.0ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
47 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
525,1 €
Liquidité
2,4 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
6.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
14 mai 26, 02:00 UTC1 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
KalshiWill the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?
KalshiWill the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation?
KalshiWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the FDA approves CagriSema for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Food and Drug Administration
- An approval is defined as:
- For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:
- Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do NOT constitute approvals:
Marchés ouverts
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 18,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- 916 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 863,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1 k €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the FDA approve CagriSema? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Jan 1, 2028 à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the FDA approve CagriSema? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will the FDA approve CagriSema? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the FDA approves CagriSema for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.