Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.6%
Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète29 juin 23, 16:04 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Comey found guilty by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSPLC found guilty in 2026?
PolymarketWill Andrew Tate be found guilty of rape or human trafficking in the UK?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will Hunter Biden be found guilty of a crime before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketRègles
France is seeing civil unrest across many cities since Tuesday 2023-06-27 as a policeman shot Nahel, a 17yo who was driving without a licence in Nanterre (Paris suburb):
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/world/europe/france-riots-nahel-shooting.html
- The policeman who shot his gun was just placed in custody and charged with homicide volontaire (first degree murder):
- https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/faits-divers-justice/mort-de-nahel-a-nanterre-le-policier-auteur-du-tir-est-mis-en-examen-et-place-en-detention-provisoire-6108318
- This market resolves YES if the first court who judges the case concludes guilty of murder (voluntary or not), resolves NO if deemed innocent (regardless of reason, e.g. in case of non-lieu).
- [link preview]
