Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 57.8%
Non 57.8%Prévisionnistes
73
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète11 sept. 23, 09:11 UTC1 janv. 50, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
The criteria for resolving yes is that the Arctic must be fully ice-free at any point in time between now and the start of 2050.
- The Arctic does not need to be fully gone by the year 2050, it just needs to be ice-free at a moment in time.
- Whether the Arctic is fully ice-free will be based on news articles from reputable sources.
- If there's any controversy, I will discuss about it with Manifold users in the comments.
- As a last resort of resolution criteria, this question will resolve Yes when the Arctic ice coverage (at a threshold 15% ice density) falls below 100,000 km squared, as reported in numbers from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
- The Arctic has less ice cover in summer than in winter, so it is plausible that in summer, the Arctic will be fully ice-free, but in winter, it will reappear.
