Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
One-OffIA1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.3%
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24
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète20 oct. 22, 13:36 UTC20 oct. 26, 21:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
The Brain-Like AGI research program by Steven Byrnes is based on taking brain models from neuroscience, containing a genetically hard-coded steering system and a learned-from-scratch thought generator and a learned-from-scratch thought assessor, and analogizing this to a method of creating artificial general intelligence.
- A hope is that it may provide a factorization of the problems involved in alignment that better fits together with the products that capabilities researchers are actually producing.
- In 4 years, I will evaluate Brain-Like AGI and decide whether there have been any important good results since today.
- I will probably ask some of the alignment researchers I most respect (such as John Wentworth or Steven Byrnes) for advice about the assessment, unless it is dead-obvious.
- About me: I have been following AI and alignment research on and off for years, and have a somewhat reasonable mathematical background to evaluate it.
- I tend to have an informal idea of the viability of various alignment proposals, though it's quite possible that idea might be wrong.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? doit être résolu le 20 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The Brain-Like AGI research program by Steven Byrnes is based on taking brain models from neuroscience, containing a genetically hard-coded steering system and a learned-from-scratch thought generator and a learned-from-scratch thought assessor, and analogizing this to a method of creating artificial general intelligence.