Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
One-OffIA1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.4%
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète20 oct. 22, 12:55 UTC20 oct. 26, 21:59 UTC
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The Natural Abstractions research program by John Wentworth is based on the idea that our world might be well-described by simple concepts which any method of cognition will end up converging upon.
- A hope is that by studying these natural abstractions and the cognitive algorithms that use them, we might produce improved interpretability tools.
- In 4 years, I will evaluate Natural Abstractions and decide whether there have been any important good results since today.
- I will probably ask some of the alignment researchers I most respect (such as John Wentworth or Steven Byrnes) for advice about the assessment, unless it is dead-obvious.
- About me: I have been following AI and alignment research on and off for years, and have a somewhat reasonable mathematical background to evaluate it.
- I tend to have an informal idea of the viability of various alignment proposals, though it's quite possible that idea might be wrong.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? doit être résolu le 20 octobre 2026.
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- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The Natural Abstractions research program by John Wentworth is based on the idea that our world might be well-described by simple concepts which any method of cognition will end up converging upon.