Starship atteindra-t-il l'orbite terrestre avant le Blue Origin Lunar Lander ?
RégulationSpaceYearlyTech3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 90.1%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète1 mars 26, 02:57 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
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PolymarketWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolution will require the vehicle to reach a nominal orbit all other mission goals will not apply to the resolution criteria.
- Starship has never reached orbit; instead, SpaceX has followed a suborbital trajectory for the 10 integrated flight tests conducted to date.
- Blue Moon Pathfinder Mission 1 is a planned robotic lunar landing mission to be operated by Blue Origin, set to launch no earlier than early 2026.
- The Blue Moon lander is to be capable of conducting crewed lunar landings lasting up to 30 days, pending an uncrewed demonstration flight scheduled for 2027.
- Considerations
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Starship atteindra-t-il l'orbite terrestre avant le Blue Origin Lunar Lander ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Starship atteindra-t-il l'orbite terrestre avant le Blue Origin Lunar Lander ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Starship atteindra-t-il l'orbite terrestre avant le Blue Origin Lunar Lander ? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Starship atteindra-t-il l'orbite terrestre avant le Blue Origin Lunar Lander ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria