Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 71.4%
Prévisionnistes
56
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète19 mai 23, 18:02 UTC1 janv. 30, 00:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiWill Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
Manifold MarketsBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Both SpaceX and Blue Origin are planning to send demo landers to the moon, before their crewed missions for Artemis III and V respectively.
- Even before the official uncrewed demo landing Blue Origin is planning to send two pathfinder landers to the moon, in 2024 and 2025.
- These BO landers might not actually look like the Artemis mission lander.
- They will likely be the small "Blue Moon" landers, not the lander that got awarded the Appendix P contract.
- Nevertheless, these landers count for the purposes of this market.
- Starship's uncrewed demo landing is scheduled for 2024, according to NASA's timeline.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+19.0pt57%
- 180-199-5.5pt35%
- 200-219-6.8pt5%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 319,9 k €
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.3%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.2%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.3%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No50.6%
- Yes49.4%
- Volume total
- 217,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 215,2 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Both SpaceX and Blue Origin are planning to send demo landers to the moon, before their crewed missions for Artemis III and V respectively.