Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS Politics2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 87.7%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète2 sept. 24, 21:08 UTC20 janv. 29, 16:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Section 4 of the 25th Amendment provides, in relevant part, a process to declare the President unable to perform the duties of the office.
- If the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or of another body as Congress may by law provide) submit a declaration to Congress, the Vice President immediately assumes the role of Acting President.
- When this declaration is transmitted to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives to Congress, the Vice President immediately assumes the role of Acting President.
- This market will resolve YES when this initial declaration is transmitted regardless of subsequent action (e.g. congressional overruling, judicial intervention, refusal of the president to step aside, etc.).
- The invocation of Section 3 will under no circumstances resolve this market to YES unless Section 4 is invoked after the invocation of Section 3.
- Any and all Constitutional questions will be resolved in accordance with the article linked here unless the Supreme Court issues a controlling opinion that is directly contrary to an opinion expressed in the article at least 6 weeks before the invocation of Section 4.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Section 4 of the 25th Amendment provides, in relevant part, a process to declare the President unable to perform the duties of the office.