Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.4%
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Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard16 oct. 24, 06:00 UTC20 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked against Donald Trump by his VP and cabinet during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
Manifold MarketsWill the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution be altered or repealed before 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
PolymarketWill any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?
KalshiRègles
Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment.
- Resolves 'YES' immediately upon such a declaration, even if Trump is only temporarily divested of authority.
- Would also resolve 'YES' if Trump voluntarily transfers presidential authority to Vance, as described in Section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, IF AND ONLY IF Vance assumes presidential authority for a continuous duration in excess of one week (7 days).
- Resolves 'N/A' if Trump is not elected President in 2024.
- See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
- 2024-11-21: Edited title "If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?" -> "Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?"