Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.4%
Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète16 oct. 24, 06:00 UTC20 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
Manifold MarketsWill the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution be altered or repealed before 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiHow many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
KalshiRègles
Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment.
- Resolves 'YES' immediately upon such a declaration, even if Trump is only temporarily divested of authority.
- Would also resolve 'YES' if Trump voluntarily transfers presidential authority to Vance, as described in Section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, IF AND ONLY IF Vance assumes presidential authority for a continuous duration in excess of one week (7 days).
- Resolves 'N/A' if Trump is not elected President in 2024.
- See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
- 2024-11-21: Edited title "If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?" -> "Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?"
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 606,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 721 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 411,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment.
- Où Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.