Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
One-OffCrime & Justice3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 94.7%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète21 nov. 22, 15:40 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
- The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable".
- And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
- I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.