At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
One-OffSociété et culture3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.2%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes
21 nov. 22, 15:57 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Shortly after market close, I will post a poll on Manifold asking "Do you personally believe that Scott Alexander is a highly unethical person, or otherwise have a strongly negative opinion of him?" Three options:
- I don't know enough about him to have a meaningful opinion
- I will resolve this market to the fraction of "Yes" responses / "No" responses.
- The poll will be limited to one response per manifold account, and will be anonymous.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
