Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
One-OffCriminalité et justice3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.2%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète18 déc. 22, 05:02 UTC31 déc. 29, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiIlhan Omar arrested by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Question is global -- arrest in any country can count.
- Any reason for the arrest can count, including minor misdemeanors.
- Arrests count even if the case is later dismissed, or charges are dropped.