Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
One-OffCriminalité et justice3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.2%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard18 déc. 22, 05:02 UTC31 déc. 29, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Question is global -- arrest in any country can count.
- Any reason for the arrest can count, including minor misdemeanors.
- Arrests count even if the case is later dismissed, or charges are dropped.
