Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète4 juin 26, 23:32 UTC30 nov. 27, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich cities will Russia enter by December 31?
PolymarketWill Russia enter Mykolaivka by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia enter Preobrazhenka by which date?
PolymarketChina provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, Russia controls any part of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.
- For the duration of the war, any YES resolution must be supported by a majority of the following sources:
- UAControlMap
- UkrDailyUpdate
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 363 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 245,5 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 62,8 M €
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 59% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027? doit être résolu le 30 novembre 2027.
- Comment Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria