Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.8%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète16 mai 25, 19:17 UTC30 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions Nick Bostrom in any official papal document, speech, or publication.
- The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope.
- The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027.
- Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications: https://www.vatican.va https://press.vatican.va
- As an example of citation see the following text in which Pope Francis cites John McCarthy and Alan Turing.: https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 267,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 95,6 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 272 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria