Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 88.1%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète4 févr. 23, 00:20 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
Polymarket46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner
PolymarketFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiRègles
Nick Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
Marchés ouverts
SportsKALSHIPHI Eagles vs TEN Titans
- Philadelphia+2.0pt77.2%
- Tennessee-1.0pt22.8%
- Volume total
- 5,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,4 M €
POLYMARKETLoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
- Game 1 Winner100%
- Game 2 Winner100%
- Game 3 Winner100%
+58 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,1 M €
KALSHIMIN Vikings vs CHI Bears
- Chicago-4.0pt62.4%
- Minnesota+4.0pt37.6%
- Volume total
- 3,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,7 M €
KALSHIBiltmore Championship Asheville Winner
- Jacob Bridgeman+27.4pt32%
- Neal Shipley-18.0pt27%
- Ricky Castillo+12.0pt22%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIGB Packers vs NY Jets
- Green Bay61.4%
- New York J38.6%
- Volume total
- 2,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,4 M €
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Buffalo11%
- Los Angeles R9.3%
- Baltimore6.8%
+29 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 104,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
- PIT Steelers vs NE Patriots
- Philadelphia vs Tennessee: Spread
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
- CIN Bengals vs HOU Texans
- Herrero Linana vs Burel
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
- CAR Panthers vs ATL Falcons
- Green Bay vs New York J: Spread
- Jaguars vs. Broncos
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Philadelphia vs Tennessee: Touchdowns
- Carolina vs Atlanta: Spread
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Nick Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute.