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Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

SportOne-OffTech Chess Adoption1a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 70.8%

Prévisionnistes

28

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 13 heures

Obsolète

9 janv. 23, 18:00 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

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Règles

Matt Levine, the Bloomberg opinion columnist.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.

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Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
Comment Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Matt Levine, the Bloomberg opinion columnist.

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