Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.7%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète9 janv. 23, 18:02 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketRègles
Bill Gurley, the venture capitalist at Benchmark.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.