Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
SportOne-OffÉchecsPolitiqueSociété et culture1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
Prévisionnistes
120
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète9 janv. 23, 19:12 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
