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Données au 29 juin 2026, 03:43 UTC · politique pm-quality-2
Prévision communautaire actuelle[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%) 90.6%En tête parmi 113 options
Prévisionnistes
179
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 jours
Obsolète28 janv. 25, 17:012 févr. 29, 4:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)91%
Marchés Associés
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
438,6 €Oui: 23%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat is Quroe's favorite animal?
214,9 €❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]: 0.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will Yao Ye beat me in Codeforces rating?
206 €Before June 2026: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US gas prices this week
538,8 k €Above 3.900: 1%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
298,4 k €↑ $70: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 13, 2026?
215,6 k €Above $74.99: 34%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
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Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.
- I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See:
- @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca