Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle![[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FStopPunting%2FllgClN6RgS.jpg&w=64&q=80)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) 100%En tête parmi 113 options
Prévisionnistes
187
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète28 janv. 25, 17:01 UTC2 févr. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWill any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRepublicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by which date?
PolymarketWhich Democratic senate candidates will lead in the Nate Silver polling average on election day?
Manifold MarketsOil Price (WTI) on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.
- I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See:
- @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions ?
- Manifold Markets cote [Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) à 100% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions sera-t-il résolu ?
- Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions doit être résolu le 2 février 2029.
- Comment Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):