Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 68.3%
Prévisionnistes
66
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète3 déc. 22, 16:51 UTC1 janv. 29, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
- PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
- Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.