Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
IAOne-Off7a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète21 janv. 24, 14:21 UTC2 janv. 34, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Top Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
Will there be a date X when the public best AI forecasting techniques (open-sourced model weights and any scaffolding; training details not necessary as long as weights are open) score worse than 75th percentile Metaculus forecasters across almost all categories of 1-3 month resolution questions, as well as a date before X+12 months when I believe that the best open-source AI forecasting techniques are on par with or better than 98th percentile Metaculus forecasters in a wide variety of 1-3 month resolution question categories.
- I'll make my resolution decision at least a year after the first commenter who credibly and in good faith proposes that date X+12 months has been reached, and at least a year after any system that ultimately resolves this question becomes public.
- I intend to decide whether X and X+12 meet the above requirements according to the long term performance of the models on several rounds of real forecasting tournaments.
- I also intend to consider the models' performances on a slate of forecasting benchmarks like Autocast (https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.15474) against any comparable human data.
- If I believe AI forecasting methods no longer perform worse than 75th percentile Metaculus forecasters at some date Y, and by Y+24 months I determine that the best methods at Y+12 months were not broadly superhuman, I will resolve NO.
- Finally, I will resolve NO no matter what on 1/1/2034.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2034.
- Comment Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will there be a date X when the public best AI forecasting techniques (open-sourced model weights and any scaffolding; training details not necessary as long as weights are open) score worse than 75th percentile Metaculus forecasters across almost all categories of 1-3 month resolution questions, as well as a date before X+12 months when I believe that the best open-source AI forecasting techniques are on par with or better than 98th percentile Metaculus forecasters in a wide variety of 1-3 month resolution question categories.