Prévision communautaire actuelle
After June 2028 48.1%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète7 juil. 26, 04:56 UTC1 juil. 28, 07:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.
- Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
- Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
- In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
- This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
- They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.
