Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 86.9%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
15 oct. 26, 03:14 UTC16 nov. 26, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM Pacific, OpenAI makes a new language model available to the public in ChatGPT, the OpenAI API, or Codex.
- "New" means a model name or version that was not publicly available before this market opened (October 15, 2026).
- For example, a GPT-6.2 model, a new mini/nano or Codex variant with its own name, a new open-weight model, or a successor to Astra.
- Any text or coding model with a new name, including mini, nano, Pro and Codex variants.
- A public preview or a paid-tier-only release, as long as ordinary paying users or API customers can use it.
- New open-weight language models that OpenAI releases publicly.