Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 92.5%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète4 avr. 26, 18:24 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
KalshiRègles
[tweet]Temporary outages do not count, permanent outages count.
- Update 2026-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on specific scenarios:
- Removing older model generations from API (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not older Sonnets) counts as cutting API access
- Keeping a mid-tier model but removing top-tier (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not Opus 5) does not count as cutting API access
- No requirement to add the most advanced models (e.g., multi-agent scaffolds, 'Pro' equivalents) to the API
- Resolution requires access to at least: a mid-tier model from the current generation (e.g., Gemini Flash, Claude Sonnet, GPT Mini) OR the most advanced non-multi-agent model from the previous generation
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : [tweet]Temporary outages do not count, permanent outages count.