Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète29 mars 26, 14:55 UTC15 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto for any of their core services in 2026?
KalshiWill Meta release Llama 5 this year?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta publicly releases a model documented with context window >= 5,000,000 tokens by 2026-12-31.
- Must be an official release with public documentation or official product/API announcement.
- Rumors, leaks, unofficial benchmarks, or third-party claims do NOT count.
- If no qualifying official release appears by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources:
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? doit être résolu le 15 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria (strict):