Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?
IAOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 57.6%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète1 juin 26, 14:36 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
As agent frameworks mature, high-volume, low-cost "inference-optimized" or highly distilled models may completely take over background agent loops from high-cost frontier models.
- This market resolves to YES if, on December 31, 2026, each of the top 3 models individually costs less than $1.00 per 1 million tokens.
- For a model to qualify, the sum of its individual input price per million tokens and its output price per million tokens must be less than $1.00.
- If Model #1, Model #2, and Model #3 all individually cost under $1.00/M tokens, this market resolves to YES.
- If any model in the top 3 spots costs $1.00/M tokens or more, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolves based on the "This Month" filter of the OpenRouter LLM Leaderboard (openrouter.ai/rankings) on Dec 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT (-ish).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 58% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As agent frameworks mature, high-volume, low-cost "inference-optimized" or highly distilled models may completely take over background agent loops from high-cost frontier models.