Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?
IAOne-Off2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 57.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète1 juin 26, 14:36 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsThe context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
As agent frameworks mature, high-volume, low-cost "inference-optimized" or highly distilled models may completely take over background agent loops from high-cost frontier models.
- This market resolves to YES if, on December 31, 2026, each of the top 3 models individually costs less than $1.00 per 1 million tokens.
- For a model to qualify, the sum of its individual input price per million tokens and its output price per million tokens must be less than $1.00.
- If Model #1, Model #2, and Model #3 all individually cost under $1.00/M tokens, this market resolves to YES.
- If any model in the top 3 spots costs $1.00/M tokens or more, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolves based on the "This Month" filter of the OpenRouter LLM Leaderboard (openrouter.ai/rankings) on Dec 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT (-ish).