Prévision communautaire actuelle
At least 1.1 Million 69.9%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète9 mars 26, 07:41 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketWhich AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.
- How far will this go in 2026?
- By top three AI labs, I mean Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.
- So far the largest context window available from these companies is GPT 5.4 with a 1.05M token context, with Anthropic and Google both having models with 1M.
- Previously Google has also offered models with 2M token context (Gemini 1.5, which didn't seem to make good use of the large context window), but for this question I'll consider only models released during 2026.
- I will resolve based on the largest context windows which are publicly available, whether through API, chat, agentic coding services, etc. I won't evaluate how effectively models can actually use their advertised context windows, although I hope we get more robust benchmarks for this in general.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote At least 1.1 Million à 70% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.