Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:03 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 60.9%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète25 mai 26, 17:03 UTC1 janv. 28, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsA top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWhich bubble bursts first?
MyriadRègles
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
