Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 60.9%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète25 mai 26, 17:03 UTC1 janv. 28, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho IPOs first?
MyriadWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWho IPOs first?
MyriadRègles
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
Marchés ouverts
Crypto
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 566,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 548,4 k €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.2pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.