Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 86%
Prévisionnistes
82
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète24 nov. 23, 00:08 UTC28 déc. 27, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketWill Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Falcon launch more times in 2027 than 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Based on this article:
- https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/
- For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars.
- The orbit has to be stable
- OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface
- If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 944,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- 620 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536 k €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- 514,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) doit être résolu le 28 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Based on this article: