Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 86%
Prévisionnistes
82
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète24 nov. 23, 00:08 UTC28 déc. 27, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Based on this article:
- https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/
- For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars.
- The orbit has to be stable
- OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface
- If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count.