Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 71.6%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète21 févr. 24, 21:22 UTC22 févr. 27, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?
Manifold MarketsWill Liquid Death canned water still be sold in USA stores ten years from now? (2024-2034)
Manifold MarketsYears from now, will it "come out that J.D. Vance was paying male hookers"?
Manifold MarketsWill any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhat will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiRègles
This could be positive (AI technology has made some improvement to my life that improves my day-to-day experience) or negative (AI puts me out of work or lowers my ability to get a job or lowers my income as a software engineer)
- This market is very subjective, so I will not be participating.
- Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Secondary economic effects do not count: If the AI bubble bursts and affects the creator's living standards as a secondary effect (e.g., through investor behavior), this would not count as AI affecting their quality of life.
- AI must be instrumental in the change, not just an indirect cause through economic ripple effects.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.6pt100%
- Meta0%
- Google0%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 74,3 k €
KALSHIWhat will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly?
- Event does not qualify+1.0pt99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence-6.0pt1%
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability-29.0pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No+5.5pt78.2%
- Yes-5.5pt21.8%
- Volume total
- 208,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 51,2 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.5pt72.7%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt12.1%
- Gemini-1.2pt8.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,6 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-6.8pt25.5%
- $2.25–$2.5T21.6%
- $1.75–$2.0T+2.5pt18.6%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+2.0pt90.8%
- ChatGPT2.8%
- MUSE0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 184,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 23,4 k €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Qwen market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- When will Trump officially rename AI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 71.6% au 24 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI? doit être résolu le 22 février 2027.
- Comment Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This could be positive (AI technology has made some improvement to my life that improves my day-to-day experience) or negative (AI puts me out of work or lowers my ability to get a job or lowers my income as a software engineer)